11 May 2007

What could've been...

My friends know that I am a HUGE sports fan. You name the sport and I've watched it at least once. Being an SEC alum of Auburn University (America's greatest university), I am of course partial to college football. There aren't many Saturdays during the fall where you'll find me out and about. With college football on just about every station now I can be on the couch from College Gameday to the final whistle of the last west coast game (normally a Hawaii game, which I support since they are my wife's alma mater). And while I love to talk about college football, there's one sport I could spend hours talking and listening about: baseball. Maybe it's the tremendous history and the romanticism of the game, but it's easily my favorite sport to debate.

So to that end, Ken Griffey, Jr. hit his 569th home run of his career, which puts him in a tie for 9th all time with Rafael "keep that B-12 shot away from me" Palmeiro. According to the Elias sports bureau, "he is batting .432 with five home runs over his past 10 games. It's the first time in his eight seasons with the Reds that Junior has hit at least that many homers with such a high batting average over a 10-game span. He last did that in May 1999 with Seattle." It's that last part that is a little sad and at the same time impressive. When Ken Griffey went to Cincinatti he was arguably the greatest hitter in baseball and was on his way to being in the top 10 greatest players in history. He had (and still has) one of the most beautiful swings I've ever seen. Unfortunately, injuries derailed his career and he hasn't been the same player since.

Now the impressive thing is even with all of the injuries he is currently 9th all time in home runs. Let's go back a bit and take a look at Griffey when he signed his contract with the Reds (I'm not Elias so I can't get as fancy, but if you use www.baseball-reference.com and mlb.com you can get some great information). In his career up to that point, he had played in 1535 games, scored 1,063 runs, had 1,742 hits, 398 home runs, batting .297 with a .563 slugging percentage, a .379 on-base percentage and an OPS of .943. So now that I've inundated you with his totals during his first 11 seasons (one of which, 1995, he only played in 72 games), he was averaging 140 games played, 97 runs scored, getting 158 hits, and 36 home runs. Since going to Cincy he as played in fewer than 110 games in 5 of his 8 seasons with 2005 being the only year he got close to his HR average (35).

So let's say Griffey had stayed healthy and was in his 19th season. Assuming he had maintained his average during his first 11 years, Griffey would have played in 2,549 games, scored 1761 runs, had 2,875 hits, and belted 654 homers. On the all time lists, those numbers would have him T-39 for games played, 20th in runs scored, 38th in hits, and 5th in home runs. If he'd maintained the smae pace for his slugging (.563) and OPS (.943) percentages he'd be T-18 and 29th, respectively. Had he stayed healthy Ken Griffey, Jr. would easily be within reach of breaking Barry Bonds' all-time home run record (we all know it's a matter of time on Barry being the home run king). There's no doubt in my mind Ken Griffey, Jr. is a lock for the halll of fame, but he could've been one of the all-time greats if injuries hadn't hampered his career.

Next time we'll take a look at A-Rod and the insane numbers he is putting up and where would stand in terms of Barry Bonds and the record book because I believe A-Rod, if he stays healthy, will be the greatest hitter in baseball when it's all said and done.

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